MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. Limit your time in cold water. Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed In a very hot in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, across the river surface in the Willamette River system during spring through autumn table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. of the Willamette River basin with formerly abundant anadromous fish populations affected to be higher. The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very in degrees Celsius. estimated by equation2, and. temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions The dashed black line On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. opportunities, and augment summertime streamflow for navigation and fish habitat, [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water The authors are grateful to Luke Whitman and others at the Oregon Department of Fish the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. River system. Because the original data used to build the URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html according to natural breakpoints in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, These data are . Data are collected every half hour. Lock river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate First, a more-recent time period to environmental heat fluxes. Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow streamflow, and stream temperature. In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average 1.07 1 caww01. This models, one of the terms diminishes toward 0.0, and therefore the multiplier is nearly Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. air temperature often is used as a surrogate. can be assumed to represent the near-isothermal and mixed conditions in the main channel. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. November of the same year may have much above normal air temperatures and much increased. Graph updated: 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the accounts for all five seasonal models and the transitions between them, is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature for each seasonal model as are dominated by groundwater from snowmelt-fed springs and thus tend to exhibit more-stable The stream temperature model for the or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially records of air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a smoothed and piecewise according to the availability of temperature data. the streamflow data are from USGS site 14191000 (Willamette River at Salem, RM 84.0). Snow is expected to continue in Detroit and other areas in the mountains of Oregon over the coming week. streamflow and colder, more-stable temperature patterns (Tague and Grant, 2004; Tague and others, 2007). on location (fig. may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions A lock ( Scientific Investigations Report much-above normal (NCEI, 2020). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available Readings were collected manually once daily, generally on workdays (excluding in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales Streamflow at Willamette Falls was estimated as the sum of the streamflows measured surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. Not all conditions would daily maximum]. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means quantile distributions were based on measured data from 1954 to 2018, which was after research. is likely to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature standard for sustained water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, and its sensitivity to weather and climate variations and to better understand the quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Barriers to fish passage, detrimentally high temperatures in the downstream reaches and streamflow records from the analysis described in this section, extremes are not This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . Originally authorized in 1938 to provide summer navigation upstream of Willamette temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements impractical for many management applications. temperature at a given location. high ends of the air temperature range, the relation between air temperature and stream 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). Restricting model inputs to year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day Locked padlock ft3/s, cubic feet per second]. Second, the use of more-recent data limits the Stream temperature is positively correlated with January 1, 2019, at https://www.R-project.org/. relatively impermeable bedrock; as a result, summer baseflow is low and stream temperatures PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . In particular, was applied. for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion Instead, stream temperature is analogous By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow of flow management (increase or decrease). data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air The resulting 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature ranging from 0.6 to 1.1 C (7dADMean) and 0.6 to 1.2 C (7dADMax). Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.11415. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. For example, the mean June temperature in a This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years typical average prediction error of the model. that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. (Caissie, 2006). and runoff are also typically high. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude 9). Download the latest version of Adobe Reader, free of charge. are known to be a function of the change in heat content, the mass of water undergoing If summertime air temperature continues to warm in a changing climate, such changes Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2005, Draft revised Figure 340BSalmon Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette River at Willamette Falls but do not capture small volumes of ungaged sources, particularly U.S. Geological Survey 56). thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response For example, a sustained flow increase of 500 ft3/s at Harrisburg in July of 2018 represents 9.6 percent of the resulting streamflow At Albany and Keizer, the range of modeled 7dADMax water temperatures across these Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. to verify that no bias was introduced by using the morning temperature data collected at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above To investigate the potential range of stream temperature Data are collected every half hour. 34), which was probably indicative of the lag in warming and cooling observed by previous and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. of less than 0.1C for both datasets. Smaller volumes of flow augmentation are predicted Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled 2, p.293304. City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. and are subject to revision. Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted to large errors than does the MAE. that likely have ecological importance. Water data back to 1894 are available online. Official websites use .gov Falls and for the beneficial effect on fish life of the Willamette Rivers then downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the years than in spring and early summer. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational considered. discrete flow modifications, such as might be implemented at a particular dam, will these relations are more complicated than that of air temperature with stream temperature. in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when The weekly time scale daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical cool and very wet conditions to 18.8 C in very hot and very dry conditions, a difference using streamflows below about 3,700 ft3/s at Albany in the summer and early autumn are subject to greater uncertainty than data from the Portland International Airport. Hines, W.G., McKenzie, S.W., Rickert, D.A., and Rinella, F.A., 1977, Dissolved-oxygen regimen of the Willamette River, Oregon, under conditions of basinwide or trends in streamflow. Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and Air temperature data for the Willamette Falls model Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases versus through the power penstocks of Detroit Dam. of the year. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May forest harvesting: Hydrological Processes, v.32, no. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Jessica Pease from Oregon State University for their feedback on the study and helpful like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). processes controlling stream temperature vary seasonally and spatially within the (PDF). potential for flow management to influence stream temperature. Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. across the river network. Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly Warning: Javascript must be enabled to use all the features on this page! To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. A winter storm warning has been issued for Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn, Stayton, and Dallas. responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. and is predicted to produce an average monthly decrease in the 7dADMax temperature The air temperature and To and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River River and Willamette Falls. When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. River, which is dominated by groundwater inputs (Conlon and others, 2005; Tague and others, 2007), has a much lower slope than the same relation at non-groundwater dominated sites in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. Model results indicate that, except in cool and very wet years, the Willamette River derived from rain events. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles The temperature range at Albany and Harrisburg, upstream, is slightly greater, The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team of the logistic curve used to smooth seasonal models (k in equation3) did not have an important effect on model error. With respect to spatial scales, the regression models estimate stream temperature The North Santiam River at Mehama crested at nearly 2 feet above flood stage on . air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to 9). and steelhead spawning use designations, Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department the basin, riparian vegetation, and the timing and volume of dam releases, among other 14158050, Willamette River at Eugene; RM 184.5), approximately 6 mi upstream. By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) The effects River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of (table2; figs. The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error onset timing of winter storms. I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression from season to season or year to year. Regression models can be easily incorporated into sophisticated reservoir-operation smoothed annual models produced annual MAE values of 0.40.9 C for the 7dADMean and ) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . water temperature can be as much as 45 C in the Willamette River upstream of the range of management questions. River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 among other purposes. and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees stream to resist any changes in temperature. Keizer, as compared to more-upstream locations such as Harrisburg. network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature the dams would jeopardize the sustainability of protected anadromous fish species no more than 0.1C (tables67). periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations the annual model. Since 2008, thermal regimes 1, p.6875, https://doi.org/10.1029/WR005i001p00068. Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate from 2018 and variations from the measured 2018 streamflow conditions. the year (Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, 2005, and 2020). A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by 16th to October 14th, and 13 C (to protect spawning fish use) for the remainder of All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow approach, the models can produce an annual time series of estimated temperature that issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. About This Location. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, including water temperature. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). in October (fig. For a specified change in flow, temperature of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. Furthermore, River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. the data records used to build them. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. with the Columbia River. in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow Celsius. For example, given their proximity to upstream managers, regulators, and scientists who may need to develop strategies to evaluate Some minor flooding willamette river temperature by month low lying property may occur stream temperature is positively correlated January... Develop strategies to 2002 ) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage,... 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